CRA Bulletin

The goal of the Computing Community Consortium (CCC) is to catalyze the computing research community to debate longer range, more audacious research challenges; to build consensus around research visions; to evolve the most promising visions toward clearly defined initiatives; and to work with the funding organizations to move challenges and visions toward funding initiatives.

Discussion of “longer range, audacious research challenges” is the job of the entire community, and so the CCC is seeking ways to encourage and facilitate broad community participation. Thus, the CCC will support and help to organize many venues for this: at workshops and conferences, in publications, and on its own web site at http://www.cra.org/ccc.

The purpose of the CCC blog (http://www.cccblog.org/) is to provide a more immediate, online mechanism for dissemination of visioning concepts and community discussion/debate about them. Initially, this will be run as a group weblog, with volunteer academic and industrial leaders providing commentary and their own opinions about new ideas and developments for future research. We invite anyone in the community to participate — the easiest way to start is simply to provide comments on the articles as they are posted. In time, we hope also to evolve the members of the contributing author group.

Please bookmark the site (http://www.cccblog.org/), or use your favorite RSS feed reader to keep up on the latest articles as they are posted. For those of you who are email-bound, you may also subscribe on the CCC blog site for email delivery of new articles.

This article reports on Ph.D. production and graduate enrollments among computer science (CS) departments in the United States. It draws on data collected by CRA’s Taulbee Survey of doctorate-granting departments.

In the early- and mid-1990s, the number of doctorates granted annually by US CS departments peaked at between 1,000 and 1,100. From the mid-1990s until a few years ago, annual doctorate production hovered at around 800 (Figure 1). At the same time, however, the number of new students entering doctorate programs increased rapidly– their number nearly tripled between 1995 and 2002 (Figure 2). In turn, this led to a near 90% increase in enrollment between 1995 and 2005. The result has been dramatic: doctorate production doubled between 2003 and 2007, to over 1,500.

What can be expected in the next few years? There are signs that the surge in degree production is close to peaking and that the number of doctorates granted will decline somewhat. The number of new students entering doctorate programs has declined in each of the past four years, and is now 17% lower than it was at its peak 2002. Likewise, total enrollments in doctorate programs have leveled off since 2004, and the number of students passing qualifying exams dropped nearly 30% between 2005 and 2007. Overall, it is too soon to tell if degree production will edge back to levels seen in the mid-1990s or if a new, higher level of production will become the norm.

This article reports on the proportion of women who either have received degrees from or are on the faculty of computer science and engineering ("CS/CE") departments in the United States and Canada. It draws on data compiled from CRA’s Taulbee Survey of doctorate-granting CS/CE departments.

Table 1 shows the percentage of bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees granted to women since 1985. Although the gender of Ph.D. recipients has always been tracked by the Taulbee Survey, questions about the gender of bachelor’s and master’s degrees recipients have only been included since 1994. The results from Taulbee are compared with data from National Science Foundation surveys on science and engineering (S&E) degrees. The most recent results for NSF data are from 2005 (no data were reported at the bachelor’s and master’s degrees levels for 1999).[1]

Table 2 focuses on the percentage of bachelor’s and master’s degrees in CS/CE that have been granted to women. Although the Taulbee results combine CE and CS results, while NSF figures reflect CS degrees only, the inclusion of CE data has little impact on the ratio of men to women in Taulbee’s results. Table 2 shows that the Ph.D.-granting departments targeted by the Taulbee Survey grant a lower proportion of bachelor’s and master’s degrees to women than the much broader range of schools that are surveyed by NSF. Unfortunately, both CRA and NSF surveys report that the share of undergraduate CS degrees granted to women has been declining since the mid-1980’s (see also http://www.cra.org/info/education/us/women.html).

Table 3 looks at the percentage of faculty, both current and those newly hired, who are women.

[1] Women, Minorities and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering, Tables C-5 and E-1; and National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics. 2006. Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards: 2005. NSF 07-305. Susan T. Hill, project officer. Arlington, VA.

This article can also be found on the CRA website, at http://www.cra.org/info/taulbee/women.html

This article concerns the employment of computer science and computer engineering (CS/CE) doctorates in the United States and Canada in the first year after they received their degrees. It draws on data compiled from CRA’s Taulbee Survey of doctorate-granting CS/CE departments.

The Taulbee Survey, which is conducted each Fall, asks for the employment status of those who received Ph.D. degrees during the previous academic year (AY). Due to changes in the survey, including the addition of new employment categories, it is difficult to trace employment trends before AY1984/1985.

Table 1 shows the results from AY1984/1985 onward as percentiles, since these are more useful for tracking trends than raw numbers. These figures exclude the approximately 15 to 20 percent of doctorates whose employment status were unknown each year, as well as those who were listed as unemployed (who average to only 1 percent).

Figure 1 illustrates the proportion of doctorates who were employed outside of academia (i.e., if self-employed, or in industry or government), academia (i.e., in Ph.D. and non-Ph.D.-granting CS/CE departments, as well as in non-CS/CE departments), and outside North America. Between 1985 and 1990, more doctorates worked in academia (50%) than outside it (40%). After this, however, employment in industry dominated, rising to nearly 60% in 1997. Since 2001, however, there have been two dramatic reversals. Between 2001 and 2003, the share of doctorates going into academia jumped from 44% to 64%, with a concomitant drop in the share working in industry from 52% to 32%. As the fortunes of the IT industry recovered, so did doctoral employment in the sector. By 2007, industry claimed 57% of doctorates while academia had slipped to 32%. During all of this, the share of doctorates working outside the US and Canada varied between 10% and 18% from the mid-1980s until the mid-1990s, and then dropped to about 5% until 2004. Since then, the portion of recent doctorate recipients working abroad has been 10% and above.

This article can also be found on the CRA website, at http://www.cra.org/info/taulbee/employment.html

This article reports on the ethnicity of computer science and computer engineering ("CS/CE") Ph.D. recipients and students in the United States and Canada. It draws on data compiled from CRA’s Taulbee Survey of doctorate-granting CS/CE departments.

Due to changes in the Taulbee Survey, including the addition of new ethnic categories, it is difficult to summarize long-term trends. As a result, Table 1 reports the ethnic background of CS/CE Ph.D. recipients since the 1993/1994 academic year (AY), when the categories and data attained consistency. As can be seen, the proportion of Ph.D.s granted to non-Hispanic Whites ("whites") has declined over the last several years, while the proportion granted to nonresident aliens has increased. The 2006/07 data suggest that the proportion granted to each may be stabilizing.

While the proportions in Table 1 are useful for tracking trends, the actual number of degrees granted to the different ethnic groups can present a starker picture. Between 1970 and 2001, results from the Taulbee Survey indicate that 8,913 CS/CE doctorates were granted to whites, while only 154 were granted to African-Americans. Between 1984– when the Taulbee Survey started to track Hispanics as an ethnic group– and 2001, 6,737 doctorates were granted to whites, while only 229 were granted to Hispanics.

Enrollment data can suggest possible trends in future Ph.D. production. These figures are given in Table 2, which tracks enrolled Ph.D. students by ethnicity. Two noticeable trends are the increase in the representation of nonresident aliens and the decrease among whites seeking doctorates. As with degree production, the share of degrees granted to the different groups has been relatively stable in the past few years.

It seems unlikely that African-Americans, Native Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders or Hispanics will see a significant improvement in their representation among Ph.D. recipients in the near future.

This article can also be found on the CRA website, at http://www.cra.org/info/taulbee/ethnicity.html

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that in 2007, the earnings gap between men and women was narrower among several professional-level IT occupations than found in the overall workforce.

Among all occupations, women earned about 80% of what men were paid. Within the (high paying) larger groupings that the professional-level IT professions fall, women in IT tended to have median weekly earnings that were closer to men’s.

For more information, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey page, http://www.bls.gov/cps/home.htm#annual

A recent NSF InfoBrief provides a snapshot of 2003, 2004 and 2005 bachelor’s and master’s degree recipients in April 2006. Compared to several other majors, computer and information sciences (CS) graduates were doing quite well.

CS graduates were most likely to be employed in business and industry and to be working full-time. At the bachelor’s level, 82% of CS majors were employed in business and industry and 91% of them (along with engineering majors) had full-time jobs. At the master’s level, 76% worked in business/industry and 93% had full-time jobs.

CS graduates also earned high salaries. CS tied for second with health majors for the highest median salary at the bachelor’s level ($45,000) and tied for first with engineering at the master’s level ($65,000). This compared to median salaries among all science, engineering and health fields of $39,000 at the bachelor’s level and $56,000 at the master’s level.

National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics, An Overview of Science, Engineering, and Health Graduates: 2006, Arlington, VA (NSF 08-304)

CRA’s Taulbee Survey of Ph.D.-granting Computer Science (CS) and Computer Engineering departments in North America has been conducted annually since 1974. Results from the most recent survey will be provided to participants and CRA members this month. They will be published on CRA’s website (www.cra.org/statistics/) and in Computing Research News in May. Due to widespread interest, CRA releases data on undergraduate degrees early.

This article reports on CS bachelor’s degree enrollments and production among Ph.D.-granting departments in the United States since the late 1990s. Data are reported in both total numbers and medians per department since the latter helps limit the effect of variants in response rates. Results from the Taulbee Survey should be compared with data produced by the National Science Foundation (NSF), which surveys all institutions that grant CS degrees (where Taulbee is a survey of the doctorate-granting departments only).

According to HERI/UCLA, the percentage of incoming undergraduates among all degree-granting institutions who indicated they would major in CS declined by 70 percent between fall 2000 and 2005.[See a previous post] Unsurprisingly, the number of students who declared their major in CS among the Ph.D.-granting departments surveyed by CRA also fell (Figure 1). After seven years of declines, the number of new CS majors in fall 2007 was half of what it was in fall 2000 (15,958 versus 7,915). Nevertheless, the number of new majors was flat in 2006 and slightly increased in 2007. This might indicate that interest is stabilizing.

The decrease in new majors has meant that the number of students enrolled in CS has fallen for several years (Figure 2). Between 2005/2006 and 2006/2007, enrollments went down 18 percent to 28,675. Overall, enrollments dropped 49 percent from their height in 2001/2002, while the median number of students enrolled in each department fell 53 percent since 2000/2001.

These declines have had a significant impact on degree production. Following several years of increases, the total number of bachelor’s degrees granted by PhD-granting CS departments fell 43 percent to 8,021 between 2003/2004 and 2006/2007 (Figure 3). The median number of degrees granted per department declined 39 percent (to 42). The sustained drop in total enrollments and student interest in CS as a major suggests that degree production numbers will continue to drop in the next few years.

It is important to note that a steep drop in degree production among CS departments has happened before. According to NSF, between 1980 and 1986 undergraduate CS production nearly quadrupled to more than 42,000 degrees. This period was followed by a swift decline and leveling off during the 1990s, with several years in which the number of degrees granted hovered around 25,000. During the late 1990s, CS degree production again surged to more than 57,000 in 2004. In light of the economic downturn and slow job growth during the early 2000s, the current decline in CS degree production was foreseeable.

Theoretical Computer Science (TCS) aims to understand the intrinsic capabilities and limitations of efficient computation. This subfield of computer science has a record of producing unexpected discoveries of high impact, such as public-key cryptography and quantum computation; and of raising deep scientific questions, such as the P vs. NP question.

On May 17, 2008, the TCS community will engage in a CCC-sponsored “visioning” workshop at the University of Washington in Seattle. The goals of the visioning workshop will be to:

Identify broad research themes within theoretical computer science (TCS) that have potential for a major impact in the future,

Distill these research directions into compelling “nuggets” that can quickly convey their importance to a layperson.

The nuggets produced in the workshop will serve to highlight the importance of sustained support for long-term, fundamental computing research, and to inspire the TCS community in its future efforts.

All researchers interested in theoretical computer science are encouraged to provide input for the visioning process. Since space is limited, those interested in attending should apply as soon as possible. (Ideas are welcome even from those who cannot attend.) More information is available at the workshop’s website http://theorymatters.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php?n=Visioning

Organizing Committee: Bernard Chazelle (Princeton), Anna Karlin (U. Washington), Richard Ladner (U. Washington), Dick Lipton (Georgia Tech), Salil Vadhan (Harvard).

About the Computing Community Consortium (CCC, www.cra.org/ccc):

The National Science Foundation created the Computing Community Consortium with the goal of stimulating the computing research community to imagine, articulate, and pursue more audacious research visions—visions that will capture the imagination and change the world. The CCC is funded through an NSF award to the Computing Research Association; the CCC’s Council operates as a committee of CRA.

The National Academy of Engineering has released its list of 14 Grand Challenges for Engineering for the 21st century.

According to the report’s press release:

The final choices fall into four themes that are essential for humanity to flourish – sustainability, health, reducing vulnerability, and joy of living. The committee did not attempt to include every important challenge, nor did it endorse particular approaches to meeting those selected. Rather than focusing on predictions or gee-whiz gadgets, the goal was to identify what needs to be done to help people and the planet thrive.

The 14 challenges are:

Make solar energy affordable

Provide energy from fusion

Develop carbon sequestration methods

Manage the nitrogen cycle

Provide access to clean water

Restore and improve urban infrastructure

Advance health informatics

Engineer better medicines

Reverse-engineer the brain

Prevent nuclear terror

Secure cyberspace

Enhance virtual reality

Advance personalized learning

Engineer the tools for scientific discovery

Further information about the challenges can be found at: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/

You may also be interested in the results of CRA’s own grand challenges conferences, http://www.cra.org/grand.challenges/, as well as CRA’s current involvement with the Computing Community Consortium, www.cra.org/ccc. About CCC:

What are the next big computing ideas, the ones that will define the future of computing, galvanize the very best students, and catalyze research investment and public support? The Computing Community Consortium (CCC) seeks to mobilize the computing research community to answer these questions by identifying major research opportunities for the field. The CCC will create venues for community participation in this exciting process.