CRA Bulletin

Survey results from HERI at UCLA have shown a steep drop since 2000 in interest in computer science as a major among incoming Freshmen.

An obvious question is whether the HERI survey results predict degree production trends. There are many reasons why this might be more difficult than it sounds: methodological differences between surveys, many students do not finish degrees in four years, etc. Nevertheless, if you take the share of students that said that they probably would major in computer science and compare it to computer science’s share of bachelor’s degrees granted four years later, they are similar.

Because there are so many variables involved, the results shown in the graph should not be taken too far. However, it does indicate that the HERI survey accurately predicts trends in computer science degree production. The good news is that computer science departments tend to grant a higher share of bachelor’s degrees than the HERI study ‘predicts.’

CRA’s Taulbee Survey, which focuses on the doctoral-granting departments and is more current than NSF data, shows that the fall in degree production suggested by the HERI survey is occurring: between 2004 and 2006, the number of bachelor’s degrees granted dropped 28%.

A graph showing NSF data for bachelor’s degrees granted in the computer sciences is at http://www.cra.org/info/education/us/bs.html

CRA’s Taulbee Survey: http://www.cra.org/statistics/

HERI/UCLA’s “CIRP Freshman Survey” is an annual survey of the characteristics of students attending colleges and universities as first-time, full-time freshmen: www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri/freshman.html.