CRA Bulletin

(See earlier posts on occupational employment projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for professional-level IT positions: overall estimates and by detailed occupation).

Although each BLS employment projection report covers a slightly different period, it is interesting to see how the forecasts have changed over time. The 2006-2016 projections for the IT workforce are lower both in terms of numbers and percent growth than those made in the report for 2004-2014. In the 2004-2014 report, BLS estimated that 1.04 million new jobs would be created– a 30.5 percent growth rate. In comparison, the report for 2006-2016 forecasts a lower growth rate in new jobs (24.1 percent) and fewer new jobs (854,000, or 18 percent lower than for 2004-2014). However, it does project more total job openings (1.64 million, or 10 percent more than in the 2004-2014 report).

It would be easy to see the series of lowered growth projections as signs of trouble within the IT workforce. But there are two other factors to consider: (1) in the 2006-2016 report, expectations for growth lowered also for the overall workforce, and (2) it probably has taken some time for the BLS to assess a relatively new group of occupations that is evolving rapidly (as seen also in the swings in computer science degree production). All in all, in each of its reports BLS predicted that the professional level IT occupations would enjoy high salaries and more than twice the growth rate of the overall workforce.

The 2006-2016 BLS projections are available at:
Monthly Labor Review, November 2007
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2007/11/contents.htm
See in particular “Occupational employment projections to 2016.”

The 2004-2014 BLS projections are available at:
Monthly Labor Review, November 2005
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/11/contents.htm
See in particular “Occupational employment projections to 2014.”

The 2002-2012 projections are at:
Monthly Labor Review, February 2004
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

The 2000-2010 projections are at:
Monthly Labor Review, November 2001
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/11/art4full.pdf